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CIMSS-NOAA Weekly Report
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IN THE PRESS:
ITEMS FOR THE ADMINISTRATOR:
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ITEMS FOR THE OFFICE DIRECTOR, ORA:
ITEMS FOR THE DIVISION CHIEF, ARAD:
Fire Modeling Manuscript Submitted to Global Change Biology: A manuscript titled "Projecting Future Fire Activity in Amazonia" was submitted to Global Change Biology. The first author is M. Cardosa (Complex Systems Research Center, University of New Hampshire) with E. Prins serving as one of the co-authors. This paper presents a new model for analyzing and predicting fire activity in the Brazilian Amazonia based in part on multi-year Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (ABBA) fire products. The model is first shown to be able to reproduce the contemporary large-scale fire activity across the region and is then used to project future fire activity in response to potential land use and climate change. Modeling results indicate that future fire activity is expected to increase substantially in response to land-use and climate change. (E. Prins, E/RA2, 608-263-6607, J. Feltz, CIMSS, 608-263-3434)
ORA Scientist Provides Information on Forecasting
for Global Balloon Attempt: R. Aune was interviewed by a reporter from
WISC-TV (CBS), Madison, Wisconsin, who wanted insights into the challenges
of forecsting for a hot-air balloon circumnavigating the globe, such as the
trip recently completed by Steve Fossett. Travelling with the wind, the
balloon is at the mercy of the meterologist who must forecast balloon position
two to three days in advance, determine the probability of turbulence, icing
and convection, and monitor winds at all levels. Observations from satellites
provide the vast majority of information required to make accurate predictions
of these parameters, particularly over the southern oceans. (R. Aune, E/24, 608-262-1071)
Presentations at the Large-scale Biosphere-atmosphere
Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) Conference: Three papers involving
applications of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)
Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (ABBA) fire products will be presented
at the Second International Large-scale Biosphere-atmosphere experiment in
Amazonia (LBA) Scientific Conference in Manaus, Brazil, July 7-10, 2002.
One poster presented by A. Botta is based on fire modeling research being
conducted by the University of Wisconsin-Madison Center for Sustainability
and the Global Environment (SAGE); a second poster presented by D. Selhorst
(Federal University of Acre, Brazil) focuses on comparisons of satellite
fire products and in-situ observations in the state of Acre, Brazil in southwestern
Amazonia. An oral presentation will be given by T. Eck (Goddard Space
Flight Center) on the inter-annual variability in biomass burning aerosol
optical depth in southern Amazonia and the effects of these aerosols on
the diurnal cycle of solar flux radiation. All three presentations
represent on-going collaborations with the Advanced Satellite Products Team
and the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies.
(E. Prins, E/RA2, 608-263-6607,
J. Feltz, CIMSS, 608-263-3434)
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