ASPB and CIMSS Weekly Report
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ASPB AND CIMSS WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 7, 2007

IN THE PRESS:

ITEMS FOR THE ADMINISTRATOR:

ITEMS FOR THE ASSISTANT ADMINISTRATOR:

ITEMS FOR THE OFFICE DIRECTOR, STAR:

CALIPSO Award: As part of the CALIPSO Science Team, A. Heidinger received a NASA "Group Achievement Award". CALIPSO is the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite flying in the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) A-train. (A. Heidinger, E/RA2, 608-263-6757, andrew.heidinger@noaa.gov)

ITEMS FOR THE DIVISION CHIEF, CoRP:

New Objective Classifier for Identifying Secondary Eyewall Formation in Hurricanes: When hurricanes become intense, they sometimes form a second eyewall at some distance around their primary eyewall. This “secondary eyewall formation” (SEF) is generally the precursor to an eyewall replacement cycle. These cycles often cause dramatic and rapid changes in intensity and are very important to recognize in a forecasting setting. Hurricane Andrew’s rapid intensification to a Category-5 just prior to making landfall was due to an eyewall replacement cycle. At present, forecasters have no objective methods to help recognize SEF. We are creating an algorithm that will utilize environmental analyses and GOES infrared imagery, all readily available in an operational setting, to objectively diagnose SEF in real-time. Thus far, we have identified a number of environmental features that have a statistically significant relationship with SEF. These features are then used as input in a Bayesian Classifier that combines climatological probabilities with the probability density functions of the features separated by class. (J. Kossin, CIMSS, 608-265-5356, Matthew Sitkowski, CIMSS)

(Click image to enlarge)

Figure caption: Distribution of predicted probabilities that SEF will occur with the next 12 hours. Top panel: Cases when SEF did not occur. Bottom panel: Cases when SEF did occur. All points to the right of climatology in the bottom panel represent cases where the feature matrix provided useful information (skill in the large sample). Class 1 comprises cases with V > 100 kt, but no SEF occurred in the following 12 hours. Class 2 is the sample of cases where SEF did occur within 12 hours. The figure shows how much additional skill beyond climatology is gained with the inclusion of the feature matrix. The climatological probability of SEF occurring is 26% based on simple historical counts. This is what we would always predict if we had no other information. With the inclusion of the feature matrix, we correctly predict, on average, significantly higher probabilities in class 2 and lower probabilities in class 1.

Article to be Published in GEO Summit Publication: A paper titled “Global Observation of Forest and Land Cover Dynamics (GOFC-GOLD): monitoring and early warning systems for wildland fire disaster reduction” has been accepted for publication in the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) Summit Publication, The Full Picture. The article discusses global near-real time wildland fire monitoring from both polar and geostationary systems and the development of a global early warning system for wildland fire. Co-authors include representatives from Natural Resources Canada, the University of Maryland, the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS, U. Wisconsin), and the Global Fire Monitoring Center. (E. Prins, CIMSS-Consultant, 530-271-2256)

Other Meetings and Telecons:

None.

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