ECMWF vs. GFS (AVN/MRF)
120hr Forecast at 500mb and Surface over the Arctic



Forecast: Compare the ECMWF and MRF 120 hour forecasts at 500mb and surface

Verification: Now, looking at the actual 500mb analysis and surface observations 120 hours later, compare the ECMWF 120hr forecast with its own observations to verify the forecast. Also, compare the MRF 120hr forecast with both the AVN and the ECMWF current obs at 120 hours.

Grid Anaylsis begins February 1, 2003 (Day 32) and goes through March 15, 2003 (Day 74)


Day ECMWF/GFS
120hr Forecast
 ECMWF
verification
 GFS (MRF)
verification
GFS verification
(with ECMWF)
Comments

bold indicates significant differences
red indicates significant inaccuracies
32
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
both forecasts accurate
33
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
ECMWF verification missing
34
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
ECMWF forecast missing
35
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb: both fairly accurate; SFC: both inaccurate (EC slightly more accurate; neither forecasts the cyclone over NE Russia, GFS also fails to forecast anticyclone over NW Russia)
36
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb: both forecasts accurate; SFC: EC more accurate (GFS forecasts an anticyclone over NE Russia but it is verified closer towards NP over Arctic Ocean)
37
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb: partial EC forecast missing; both forecasts fairly accurate; SFC: both fairly accurate (both models forecast anticyclone over central Russia less intense than verified and cyclone S of Greenland less intense than verified)
38
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb: both fairly accurate (both forecast cyclone over Hudson Bay/Baffin Is. less intense than verified): SFC: GFS more accurate (EC forecasted cyclone over SW Alaska but verified over Pacific & anticylone in Europe verified and not forecasted; both forecast anticyclone in Russia less intense than verified)
39
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
ECMWF verification missing
40
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
ECMWF verification missing
41
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
partial 500mb EM & SFC EC forecast missing; both forecasts accurate
42
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb: both accurate; SFC: both fairly accurate (GFS forecasts cyclone in N Russia further W than verified)
43
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
ECMWF verification missing
44
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb: both accurate; SFC: GFS more accurate (GFS cyclone forecasted N of Scandinavia but verified further SW; EC cyclone forecasted over Baffin Is. but verified E of Quebec; EC cyclone forecasted over N Central Russia more intense than verified)
45
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
ECMWF forecast missing
46
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb: GFS more accurate (EC cyclone S of Greenland forecasted less intense than verified); SFC: both fairly accurate
47
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb: both forecasts accurate; SFC: intensities not accurate; EC slightly better (EC cyclones are forecased less intense than verified; GFS cyclones and anticyclones not forecasted as intense as verified)
48
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
ECMWF forecast missing
49
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb: both models forecast anticyclone over Scandinavia less intense than verified; SFC: GFS more accurate (both forecast anticyclone over S Central Russia less intense than verified; EC forecasts anticyclone W of Quebec but a cyclone is verified)
50
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb: EC more accurate (GFS forecasts cyclone over AK but verified further N and more intense & cyclone over Greenland is not forecasted to extend far enough S); SFC: both fairly accurate (EC cyclone forecasted over Hudson Bay less intense than verified; for GFS this cyclone is forecasted too far W)
51
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb: both fairly accurate; SFC: both somewhat inaccurate (EC fails to forecast cyclone over Quebec; forecasts an anticyclone over Greenland but a cyclone is verified; GFS cyclone forecasted over US is not verified; cyclone forecasted at NP is verified towards Russia; cyclone in Atlantic forecasted too far NW)
52
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb: EC more accurate (GFS cyclone forecasted to extend through Europe/Russia border but verified to stop over the N Russian coast; cyclone verified over Quebec and forecasted to extend only over Baffin Is.); SFC: EC more accurate (GFS fails to forecast cyclone S of Greenland & cyclone forecasted N of Scandinavia is verified further W)
53
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb: EC more accurate (GFS fails to forecast cyclone S of Greenland); SFC: EC more accurate (cyclone over N Central Russia is more intense than forecasted for both models; GFS fails to correctly forecast locations of the 2 cyclones S of Greenland)
54
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb: both accurate; SFC: EC slightly more accurate (both models forecast cyclone over central Russia less intense than varified)
55
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb: both accurate; SFC: both fairly accuate (both fail to forecast cyclone W of UK)
56
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb: both accurate; SFC: EC slightly more accurate (GFS fails to forecast cyclone over N central Russia)
57
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb: both accurate; SFC: both somewhat inaccurate (neither forecasts the cyclone in central Russia; both forecast the cyclone N of UK but it is verified S of Greenland)
58
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb: both accurate; SFC: EC slightly more accurate (GFS cyclone forecasted over AK but verified towards Alaskan W coast)
59
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
ECMWF forecast missing
60
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb: both accurate; SFC: EC more accurate (GFS fails to forecast the cyclone in mid Atlantic)
61
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
both forecasts accurate
62
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb: both fairly accurate; SFC: both fairly accurate (both forecast cyclone in mid Atlantic but it is verified over Newfoundland)
63
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
both forecasts fairly accurate
64
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb: GFS more accurate (EC fails to forecast anticyclone over Greenland); SFC: both fairly accurate
65
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb: GFS slightly more accurate (EC fails to forecast anticyclone over Black Sea); SFC: EC slightly more accurate (both models forecast cyclone over NW Territories but none verified; GFS fails to forecast cyclone over the Bering Sea)
66
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb: both forecasts accurate; SFC: both somewhat inaccurate at NP area (EC forecasts anticyclone over N Alaska more intense than verified; both forecast cyclone at NP more intense than verified)
67
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb forecasts fairly accurate; SFC forecasts accurate
68
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
ECMWF forecast missing
69
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb: GFS slightly more accurate (EC fails to forecast cyclone over Black Sea); SFC: both inaccurate (EC forecasts anticyclone over AK more intense than verified and forecasts anticyclone over NE Russia less intense than verified; GFS fails to forecast cyclone at NP)
70
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb: EC more accurate over NP area (GFS forecasted cyclone less intense than verified); SFC: both forecasts fairly accurate
71
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
part. 500mb and SFC EC verif. missing; GFS slightly more accurate intensities (500mb EC forecasted cyclone at NP less intense than verified)
72
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb: GFS slightly more accurate intensities; SFC: both forecasts accurate
73
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
both forecasts accurate
74
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
500mb / SFC
ECMWF forecast missing